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"What lies behind us and what lies before us
are tiny matters compared to what lies within us."
- Ralph Waldo Emerson
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Commentary |
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Like you, summer has me running. Click on the audio above and listen to the 12:30 noon report. That pretty much is a synopsis of the commentary today.
US Dollar Daily Chart
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Corn |
Last Wednesday I said "a close above 820 would send corn to 850 quick." That occurred Friday morning after the report with a 1 minute ride to 849 and then fast collapse. Friday I said that " corn and beans had to close near session highs or risk a larger sell off due to lost momentum". That selling has occurred and picked up more selling interest. On the chart below, corn closed below the blue line on my 3 hour chart for the first time since late June. If corn does not close back above 803 tomorrow, then a $1.00 break from 8.49 to 7.49 is a likely outcome before the market reverts back to the upside. The nano-trading computers have figured out everyone is long, so it is easy to break the market now. The joke is, when they ban the ethanol mandates, it will be in the market, and the corn will explode higher because China will have stepped in and bought the break and demand delivery. Then you will have your $10.00 corn over the stupidity of not letting the market handle ethanol.
Dec Corn Intraday Chart
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Beans |
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Soybeans closed well off their highs Friday which we warned would be bad price wise, and the cooler weather is being perceived as beneficial for growth. Good luck with that without rain in all of the dry areas. 1575-1580 looks to get tested here, if that lets go on a closing basis, the 1510 number we referenced last week will become the target again.
Nov Bean Chart
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Wheat
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When corn gave up, obviously wheat gave up. The 895-900 value is important here. Russia sold wheat to Egypt, but in September/October the rumor is Russia will have to limit exports. That should create a seasonal rebound in wheat prices that typically happen in the last half of September. I do look for 10.00 plus Minneapolis wheat board again in spite of a good crop. Corn will create it.
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Minn Wheat Daily Chart
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Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle |
Early cash calls to start the week are steady at 120-121, and this helped to support live cattle futures. The fact that corn sold off over 50 cents from Friday's high helped to support feeder cattle, although they are still entrenched in their trading range for now. Choice beef is now trading up over $186.00 and packer margins are back in the black at $12 per head. Higher prices are more than likely in front of us, especially after the first of the year. A break of the drought or a severe winter storm will send prices to record levels.
October Live Cattle Daily Chart
September Feeder Cattle Chart
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Gold
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Gold could not get above 1630 Friday and run. So the nano-traders it looks like are going to check out the 1600 price first for a trampoline bounce. A close back under 1595-1600 would mess the gold chart up again. That is if it doesn't look messy enough already.
December Gold Daily Chart
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Crude |
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Repeating what I said last week.. "95.00 is the mid-point of the last year's range of 80-110. Oil will be hard pressed to overcome this mid 90 range for awhile. Sell calls above 98.00 and collect premiums in the short term." 89.00-90.00 should be challenged now with the September contract getting ready to expire.
October Crude Oil Daily Chart
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08-13-12
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NOTE: With the exception of livestock, all trades will be entered in the electronic markets unless otherwise noted. Hedge recommendations and Trade recommendations are totally separate, and may sometimes conflict with one another. It is strongly suggested that Spec trades and Hedge trades be done in separate accounts.
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A word to the Wise
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited.
Newsletter provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.
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