|
DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/16 11:41
Lean Hog Futures Join the Market Rally Midday Wednesday
Strong buyer support developed in all livestock trade Wednesday morning with
firm follow-through support in cattle futures, while lean hog contracts quickly
joined the market rally party.
Rick Kment
DTN Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Active buyer support redeveloped in cattle futures Wednesday morning, with
Feeder cattle futures once again leading the upward shift in prices, holding
triple-digit gains in all nearby contracts at midday. Spillover support quickly
and aggressively moved into live cattle and lean hog futures, with moderate to
strong gains seen across the complex. Very little new market direction is
evident from a technical or fundamental perspective on Wednesday morning, but
the lack of resistance throughout the market midweek is likely to lead to
additional support for the rest of the session. December corn is up 4 1/4 at
$4.24 and December soybean meal is up $4.40 at $283.9. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average is down 15.07 at 44,008.22.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle gains have redeveloped Wednesday, with the majority of support
seen in early 2026 contract months. The continued and aggressive support in
feeder cattle trade has been the focus through the morning, with traders still
looking for additional confirmation of higher beef values through the week and
steady to increased cash cattle trade. The ability to sustain current gains
through the rest of the day is likely to help support longer-term support
through the entire live cattle complex. Cash cattle activity has seen another
slow start to the morning in cash cattle country with asking prices around
$232-plus in the South, but they are not established in the North. Bids remain
hard to find. Packer inquiry should improve as the day progresses. Having said
that, significant trade volume will likely be delayed until Thursday and/or
Friday. August live cattle are $0.50 higher at $222.9, October live cattle are
$0.25 higher at $219.525 and December live cattle are $0.50 higher at $220.10.
Boxed beef prices are Lower: choice down $4.11 ($373.61) and select down $1.73
($360.85) with a movement of 103.97 loads (79.11 loads of choice, 18.25 loads
of select, zero loads of trim and 6.61 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle continue to lead livestock, and the cattle complex is higher,
with triple-digit gains seen through the entire feeder cattle complex. August
futures are trading $1.45 per cwt higher, at $323.72 per cwt, with traders once
again testing contract high levels. The lack of buyer pressure in the cattle
market in general, and specifically the feeder cattle futures, has markets
pushing even higher with very little resistance currently seen. On the
continuous monthly feeder cattle chart, prices have a rocketlike projection
with a $80 per cwt rally seen over the last year, without a significant market
correction within that time frame. This has still kept traders bullish, but
some are questioning the ability for additional technical support to continue
this trend over the coming months. At the Oklahoma National Stockyards Tuesday,
compared to the last sale two weeks ago: Feeder steers 10.00-20.00 higher,
800-950 pounds lightly tested and steady to 5.00 higher. Steer calves
15.00-25.00 higher. Feeder heifers and heifer calves 10.00-25.00 higher. Demand
remains extremely good with active trade as buyers completely disregarded the
sharply lower cattle futures on Monday. Rains fell again this past weekend,
keeping summer pastures green. Quality on cattle seen on the sale was mostly
average. August feeders are $1.00 higher at $323.275, September feeders are
$1.23 higher at $323.6 and October feeders are $1.03 higher at $321.50.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures pushed prices higher Wednesday following early gains in
outside financial markets and continued buyer support through the cattle
complex. It was hard to find a significantly weaker market during early morning
trade Wednesday, which helped to draw buyers back into the complex. Unlike the
cattle complex, which has been on a long-term market rally and shows little
signs of cooling in the near future, lean hog futures are bouncing off of
2-month lows, based on uncertainty in global pork demand surrounding tariffs
and overall trade activity. With August futures taking over as spot month
contracts, prices continue to hold well above the $100 per cwt level. But the
fact that other nearby contracts are trading at a $16 to $24 per cwt discount
to spot month contracts will continue to keep traders cautious and likely
skittish through the near future. August lean hogs are $0.53 higher at $104.45,
October lean hogs are $1.13 higher at $88.6 and December lean hogs are $1.20
higher at $80.375. Hog Prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog
report, up $1.45 with a weighted average of $111.81, ranging from $101.00 to
$116.50 on 3,595 head with a five-day rolling average of $111.16. Pork Cutouts
totaled 150.58 loads with 133.61 loads of pork cuts and 16.97 loads of trim.
Pork cutout values are down $0.19 at $113.39.
(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
For more free DTN information sent right to your email each morning - click here to sign up for DTN Snapshot.
|
|