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Cowardice asks the question: "Is it safe?" Consensus asks the question: "Is it popular?" Courage asks the question: "Is it right?"
- Rod Rogers
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Commentary |
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I will be gone all next week. Next newsletter goes out on Monday September 10. If the US dollar is not moving lower later next week, grains will be struggling in price and moving sideways to lower in September.
US Dollar Daily Chart
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Corn |
After an early rough week, corn is not on sale again. That doesn't say much, but the chart does obviously show it is happy to trade in the 790-825 range for now. It is going to take some shock news, like the threat of a sub 10 billion bushel corn crop to wake this market up. They may take until the October report.
Dec Corn Intraday Chart
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Beans |
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Beans held the 1705-1710 support we showed and recovered quickly. This leg up should have trouble with the 1790-1810 value in front of harvest.
Nov Bean Daily Chart
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Wheat
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Re-read what I said on Monday.. it still stands. "Wheat has support at 860-870 that looks to be tested again. Seasonally, wheat prices advance from late August into October. If Russia does back out of the export scene in a couple of weeks, current weakness in price will be looked at as a buying opportunity. Add potential basis improvement into fall, holding harvested wheat that hasn't been sold yet should pay off."
Dec Wheat Daily Chart
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Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle |
Cash cattle trade was generally steady last week at 120-121. Choice beef is trading 192.50 and packer margins are $32 per head in the black. Everybody is squawking about the seasonal correction ahead of us for cash and beef prices, which typically occurs after Labor Day. It may or may not happen if and when everybody assumes. We've been talking about the bullish supply fundamentals as we get into next year. Keep in mind that the deferred futures are already pricing a lot of that into the market. Therefore, maintain a neutral stance for here and now. It's a relatively long time between now and next year, so you can almost be certain that the market will wreak havoc on both bulls and bears alike.
October Live Cattle Daily Chart
Feeder Cattle Daily Chart
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Gold
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Gold is retreating as the FED "again" is probably going to say nothing...It's what they do that gets this market to rally. Gold is a MAJOR buy if it get's pushed down to the 1629-1635 region.
December Gold Intra-Day Chart
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Crude |
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It's not the hurricanes that get oil to rally. It's the FED trashing the US dollar that does. No FED dollar trashing this week and the oil goes down. Support is 92.00-92.50. History says oil should go up later next week.
October Crude Oil Daily Chart
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08-28-12
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NOTE: With the exception of livestock, all trades will be entered in the electronic markets unless otherwise noted. Hedge recommendations and Trade recommendations are totally separate, and may sometimes conflict with one another. It is strongly suggested that Spec trades and Hedge trades be done in separate accounts.
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A word to the Wise
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable to Heartland Investor Capital Management , Inc. but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK of LOSS involved in trading futures and / or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL . NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. The information contained in this newsletter is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any further disclosure or use, distribution, dissemination or copying of this message or any attachment is strictly prohibited.
Newsletter provided by Heartland Investor Capital Management, Inc. a registered CTA with the NFA, of which Eugene Graner is principal. This entity is a separate legal entity from the Introducing Broker Heartland Investor Services.
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Copyright © 2012 Heartland Investor Capital Management All rights reserved |
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