DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/29 10:51
Grain Futures Headed Lower Midday Monday
Corn trade is 8 to 11 cents lower, beans are 7 to 8 cents lower and wheat is
10 to 20 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 130 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.25 higher. Interest rate products are mostly lower. Energies are
mixed with crude up $2.55. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed
with gold down $1.00.
Corn trade is 8 to 11 cents lower at midday Monday with firm spread trade as
the December contract prepares to go into delivery and action fading back from
the upper end of the range. Weekly export inspections were OK at 766,063 metric
tons. Ethanol margins have narrowed with the energy move but demand will remain
strong through Christmas. Basis should remain steady to firmer short term with
fall field work likely to make good progress where supplies are available. On
the December contract, we have resistance at the recent high of $5.89, with the
upper Bollinger Band at $5.91 and the 20-day moving average as support at
$5.71, which we continue to hold above.
Soybean trade is 7 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade failing to hold
overnight gains and fresh bullish news limited as product momentum slips again.
Meal is $4.00 to $5.00 lower with oil is 0.40 cent to 0.50 cent higher. South
America looks to continue short-term progress with issues remaining limited for
now, while the extended forecast remaining mixed for crop development short
term. Crush margins remain very strong for the moment as well even as the meal
rally slows, pulling back sharply from the recent highs. Weekly export
inspections remained solid at 2.143 million metric tons. On the January soybean
chart, support is the 20-day at $12.45, which we are testing at midday, with
the $12.84 fresh high as the next round up from there, with the upper Bollinger
Band above that at $12.94.
Wheat trade is 10 to 20 cents lower at midday with early gains fading again
as overbought conditions ease. Australia is expected to see better harvest
conditions and good yields, albeit with quality reduced from milling grain on
some from the recent rains, with little change on Russian export outlooks short
term. The dollar is just below 97 points, continuing to consolidate near the
highs that could eventually become a headwind. Weather in the Plains looks
little changed short term with longer-term dry concerns for the Southern Plains
heading toward dormancy. Spring wheat is firmer versus Chicago, moving the
premium to 2.21 cents, with KC at a 42-cent premium in firmer action, moving 38
cents in recent days. Weekly export inspections slumped a bit at 250,651 metric
tons. KC December chart support is at the 20-day at $8.26 with resistance at
the upper Bollinger Band at $8.89 with the fresh high at $8.87.
David Fiala can be reached at [email protected]
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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